Trucking Market - Trucking Industry Forecast in 2026

The trucking market enters 2026 under pressure due to low freight volume and tighter financing.

Many carriers exited 2025 with significantly thinner margins than initially estimated, despite reducing costs in response. That’s why many analysts still reference the trucking industry forecast 2025 when trying to explain today’s conditions.

The sector has been completely reshaped. Low volumes, shifting contracts, and weak pricing!

That’s why in today’s report, we’re breaking down where the freight market stands now. We’re diving deep into how things are evolving today. Also answering some of the burning questions!

Are We In a Trucking Recession?

Many businesses describe the past year as a “downturn,” not a collapse.

It is a fact that volumes dropped across retail, construction, and manufacturing, but calling it a recession is an overestimation. Recent data from large US trucking companies shows a clear freight demand decline compared to levels during 2024. Smaller firms felt the decline in trucking demand first.

So, how is the freight market right now? The answer is uneven!

So, the current freight market only rewards freight shipping carriers with well-established contracts and steady supply chain lanes. On a year-over-year basis, small operators still fight sort-haul freight with thin margins. However, when taken under inspection, the total recession rates stopped falling.

This signals stabilization, but hardly any growth!

How Is the Freight Market Right Now

The current 2026 freight market condition is not bright. The capacity stays loose, and shippers control the pricing. It leads to most carriers focusing solely on survival, limiting their expansion. This freight market update shows steady volumes in food and consumer staples, weak activity in construction, and imports.

When it comes to pricing, it’s the same story. The current freight rates stand dangerously close to the operating costs. In short, for the smaller businesses, stability exists, but growth does not.

Here’s how the freight market evolved after the COVID-19 pandemic:

Freight Industry Truck Rates (Timeline)

Freight pricing still drives most planning decisions in 2026.

We’ve prepared a simple reference point for how per-mile pricing moved after COVID. Rates vary by lane, equipment, and fuel program, so treat these as broad signals, not lane quotes.

Here are the trucking rates per mile, 2026 estimation included:

These ranges help benchmark weekly swings in spot rates for trucking. High interest rates slow fleet expansion and delay equipment upgrades. Profit in 2026 depends on how flatbed rates compare with contract rates, then subtract real costs like the driver wages and the fuel costs.

We’re also not considering repair and maintenance costs!

Cross-Border LTL Freight Demand Surge

What’s curious is that cross-border shipping clearly shows growth potential. According to the trucking industry trends 2025, there is a steady rise in small exports. The nearshoring orders show a visible cross-border LTL freight demand surge, especially along the U.S./Mexico lane.

The LTL freight volume primarily consists of electronics, automotive parts, and retail restocking.

The freight market update 2025 shows that many border freight terminals report tighter dock schedules tied to LTL services. This favours LTL carriers, stimulates growth, and balances truck load rates.

Freight Brokerage Industry Challenges in 2026

The freight brokers enter 2026 with tight margins and high client expectations. Sadly, the entire business model has shifted after two years of weak pricing and low volumes. This brings a few challenges, with a record-high cost pressure.

Here are the main freight brokerage industry challenges for 2026:

• Rate Compression: There are much lower margins across contract and spot lanes.

• Carrier Retention: There are many fewer loyal fleets, and much higher lane turnover.

• Credit Risk: Most shippers still delay, straining broker cash reserves month after month.

• Tech Overload: The tools rise, productivity stays mostly flat across most operations.

• Compliance Costs: Insurance and audits grow year over year for most brokerages.

These pressures force smaller freight brokerages to merge, downsize, or exit the market. Larger firms invest in automation and tighter carrier screening to protect margins.

What Is the Future of the Trucking Industry

So, will trucking get better in 2026?

The next phase surely favours carriers who remain flexible in the market freight changes. This encompasses large shippers who split volumes between contracts and spot market trucking to balance their risks. So, that’s why the activity in the freight spot market should remain volatile.

However, longer-term shifts point elsewhere. The regional manufacturing supports steady full truckload demand. These tighter carrier relationships are estimated to balance costs in this sector and motivate border logistics even further.

The bottom line here is that new emerging trends will truly shape the trucking industry in 2026.

What Is the Outlook for Trucking in 2026

What does this trucking marketing update tell us? Most forecasts point to slow improvement, not a rapid rebound. The capacity stays disciplined as carriers avoid rapid fleet expansion. Shippers keep leverage on long-term pricing through early 2026.

The main profit comes from lane selection, cost control, and stable contracts. Hence, the market rewards patience more than growth this year.

Follow the Freightrun blog for more 2026 updates!